The regular season has now come and gone. We're in the final two weeks of WCHA play and then we head to the NCAA tourney. As disappointing as it is to see the season coming to an end, this is what the teams play the regular season for and I'm excited to see what comes out of the playoffs.
Last weekend saw some teams jockeying for position, but the standings didn't really change at all. UAA swept Mankato and SCSU split with Denver, so UAA ended up tying the Huskies for points and winning the tie breaker, based on league wins, and end up getting the eight seed instead of the ninth. Everything else stayed the same.
Since the Huskies are my team, I'm going to spend some time on them this week. Sorry folks, but I feel I need to. SCSU was picked to finish 2nd or 3rd in the league, depending on the preseason poll, and they finished tied for 8th. I think we can all agree that they are the biggest disappointment this season. However, the bright spot is their finish.
Only one team had a better second half record than the Huskies and that was UND. The Huskies finished the second half of the season 8-5-3 in league play and 10-5-3 overall. When you compare that to a 3-8-1 league record and a 5-11-2 overall record in the first half, it was one heckuva turnaround for this team. The walked into Denver last Friday and took a game from the Pioneers, and they played a great game against the Pios on Saturday night as well. They got down by two goals in the third, but closed the lead to within one with plenty of time to tie it. They came about six inches to a foot of doing so, by the way.
I have been impressed the way this team has started coming together in the final month of the season. Unfortunately, it's going to be too little, too late to get them a spot in the NCAA tourney. They are currently 20th in the Pairwise rankings and will need to raise their RPI by about .200 points to get them into a position to win the comparisons against the six teams in front of them. Given the lack of games remaining I just don't see this happening. Their best bet to make it is to sweep Duluth and then go on to win the Final Five.
Given the way this team is playing right now it certainly is a possibility, but it's highly unlikely from an SCSU squad. I hate to say it, but SCSU has never been a post-season team. The won the Final Five in 2001 for the first and only time in school history, and have made it to the championship game multiple times since and have failed to win it again. Then again, you never know what your team can do. This team has already surprised me with its late season push, so maybe they're finally saving their best hockey for last.
Looking back to my preseason prediction, I didn't do so well. I only managed to predict three teams final standings correctly. I pick UND to win it and CC and UW in 6th and 7th, respectively. The most surprising team this season is easily Nebraska-Omaha, and the most disappointing is SCSU. Anchorage was also a pleasant surprise. They had a sub-.500 first half, but were over .500 in the second. That's a total reversal of UAA teams of old.
I went 6-6 last weekend and finished the regular season 142-117. That's not too shabby given the unpredictability of this league on a night-in, night-out basis. I did pick two scores correctly last weekend, too. I don't know how many of those I have for the season; it's probably around 10-12. Obviously, all 12 teams are playing each other this weekend. I'm going to do this by match-up instead of time this week. All Sunday games are if needed. I'll still give scores for all Sunday games should unexpected match-ups go to three games, so be sure to read where I have [team name] in 2 or 3 games.
12 Michigan Tech (2-24-2, 4-28-4) at 1 North Dakota (21-6-1, 26-8-3), Friday 7:37, Saturday/Sunday 7:07
The Huskies come into this game having been embarrassed on their home ice last weekend. They dropped both games by 6-1 and 11-2 scores. That is not the way you want your seniors to go out, but it happened. Tech is now on a five game losing streak.
The Sioux are, obviously, coming off a couple big wins...scoring margin wise anyway. They're currently on a nine game unbeaten streak.
UND leads the overall series 142-89-8, and they don't look to lose any games here. This should be an easy sweep for the Sioux. They dominate the Huskies in all aspects of the game, and it doesn't look like the Huskies will put up too much of fight for the Sioux. I think MTU is going to put its best foot forward, but the Sioux are so talented that is just won't matter.
Sioux advance to the Final Five in two games.
6-0 Friday
6-2 Saturday
(7-1 Sunday, should it amazingly go to three games)
11 Mankato (8-16-4, 14-16-4) at 2 Denver (17-8-3, 21-10-5), Friday 8:37, Saturday/Sunday 8:07
Mankato is coming off an embarrassing sweep at home by Alaska-Anchorage, of all teams. Again, that's not the way you want your seniors to go out. Mankato is on a three game losing streak entering the playoffs, and don't look to be playing well at all.
The Pioneers are coming off a tough home split vs. the Huskies last weekend. They've split all five of their series since the start of February, and don't appear to playing their best hockey.
The Pios were able to take three of four points from the Mavericks when they met in mid-January, and own a 22-13-6 lead on Mankato all-time. This could be an interesting series. Yes, Denver leads the Mavs in all statistical categories, but neither team is playing great hockey right now. With that said, the talent level on Denver is far and above the level of Mankato, and that will be the difference maker in the series.
Pioneers advance to the Final Five in two games.
4-1 Friday
3-2 Saturday
(3-2 Sunday, should Mankato steal a game)
10 Bemidji (8-15-5, 12-17-5) at 3 Nebraska-Omaha (17-9-2, 21-13-2), Friday 7:37, Saturday/Sunday 7:07
The Beavers are coming off of a disappointing weekend against the Gophers. They managed to squeak out a tie on a horrible penalty called on the Gophers in the closing minute of the game on Friday, and then blew a two goal lead on Saturday and lost in OT. The Beavers are on a four game winless streak.
Omaha went into Duluth last weekend and were man-handled on Friday night before bouncing back to win on Saturday night. UNO has won seven of their last ten games, but are 3-3 in their last six.
This is probably the one match-up this UNO team did not want and the only match-up Bemidji wanted. UNO holds a 5-4-1 record all-time against the Beavers, but the Beavers have dominated the Mavs this year going 3-0-1. I don't know what it is about this Bemidji team vs. this Maverick team, but something is wrong. These teams look to be fairly even statistically speaking. This could be a very interesting series. Will UNO finally figure it out against Bemidji?
Beavers advance to the Final Five in three games.
Bemidji wins Friday 3-1
UNO wins Saturday 3-1
Bemidji wins Sunday 4-1
9 St. Cloud (11-13-4, 15-16-5) at 4 Duluth (15-8-5, 20-9-6), Friday/Saturday/Sunday 7:07
The Huskies are coming off a well-played weekend at Denver where they split with the Pioneers. Prior to that they swept Wisconsin at St. Cloud in embarrassing fashion if you're a Badger fan. The Huskies are playing well right now, but started out the month horribly. They're 4-4-2 since the start of February.
Duluth is coming off a split with Omaha last weekend, and dropped three of four points at CC the prior week. Duluth is 3-4-3 in February and is not playing well right now.
For me, this is the match-up I wanted most. The Gophers don't lose at home in the playoffs, and we had no luck vs. CC earlier this season. Surprisingly, the Huskies lead the overall series against UMD 54-36-7, and are on a 4-0-2 run against the Dogs since Jan. '09. Things change though. Statistically, the teams look fairly even. The Dogs have three high scoring forwards, but the Huskies are putting some goals up now, too. Special teams will probably be the key in this one, and the Huskies special teams are playing well right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Duluth take this in three, but I'm really impressed with this St. Cloud team right now.
Huskies advance to the Final Five in three games.
Huskies win Friday 3-1
Bulldogs win Saturday 4-2
Huskies win Sunday 3-2
8 Alaska-Anchorage (12-14-2, 14-17-3) at 5 Minnesota (13-10-5, 16-12-2), Friday/Saturday/Sunday 7:07
Anchorage is coming off an impressive sweep at Mankato last weekend. Prior to that they split with Alaska in the Governor's Cup. They're on a three game winning streak and are 6-4 since the start of February.
Minnesota struggled last weekend against Bemidji, but still managed to come away with three points from the series. They're currently on a seven game unbeaten streak and are 5-2-3 since the start of February.
I can't really say that this is an interesting match-up, but in some ways it actually is. This is a different UAA team than we're used to. They have the ability to win some games. Also, Anchorage is the only team to win a playoff game in the new Mariucci. The Gophers have a good record over the last month, but they've played Bemidji, Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, Denver, and Duluth. They were 1-2-1 against Denver and UMD and 4-0-2 against the bottom half. They got the wins they were supposed to, though. I can't see Anchorage taking a game. The Gophers are clutch at home in the playoffs. The Gophers hold a 50-17-7 all-time edge on the Seawolves.
Gophers advance to the Final Five in two games.
4-1 Friday
3-2 Saturday
(4-1 Sunday if Anchorage pulls of the (nearly) impossible once again)
7 Wisconsin (12-13-3, 20-14-4) at 6 Colorado College (13-13-2, 19-16-2), Friday 8:37, Saturday/Sunday 7:07
Wisconsin is coming off a split last weekend vs. CC. From what I understand, though, the Badgers played some of their best hockey. Friday probably would've ended in a tie had a Badger not taken a 5:00 major to end the game. The Badgers are 1-6-1 since the start of February.
CC is, obviously, also coming off a split last weekend. The finally got their first road win since sweeping St. Cloud in mid-December. The Tigers are 4-4-2 since the start of February.
This match-up intrigues me because these two teams are playing back-to-back series, and they're fairly evenly matched. Wisconsin is just terrible right now, and the Tigers appear to be holding their own. The Tigers are decent at home this season and the Badgers aren't the best on the road. I'm not sure what else to say about this one. The Badgers lost a lot last season and are having trouble putting it all back together, but they tend to do ok in the playoffs. UW does lead the overall series 107-60-9. I wouldn't be surprised to see either team come out of this one.
Tigers advance to the Final Five in three games.
CC wins Friday 4-2
UW wins Saturday 3-2
CC wins Sunday 3-2
That's it folks. Those are my final full weekend picks of the season. I'll still have picks next weekend, but they'll be a day at a time. I will, however, fill out a bracket before the tourney starts. Enjoy your games this weekend. I'll see you all back here next week. Go Huskies!
